Editor’s Note: The following opinion/analysis piece does not necessarily reflect the views shared by Eve News24, the opinion expressed are solely the ones from the author.

Analysis: The War in the North and what is to come – Part 1

I will try to express an objective opinion about the new Norther War that started in the last days of 2011 with the attack of GSF in Branch. In my opinion, the assault on Branch marks only the beginning of a campaign having as main goal the establishing of the new sov dominant super-power in Eve. GSF (Goonswarm Federation for those unfamiliar with this abbreviation) correctly assessed the extreme weakness of their older opponent WN (White Noise). The supercapital nerf combined with WN lack of leadership led to a very quick steamrolling of Branch by GSF and allies. We have to observe here that GSF were never friends with WN anyway. Therefore their action is a well calculated political and military move that at the moment establishes GSF as the major sov holder on the map. Mittani correctly assessed the situation and acted accordingly.

WN was unable to stop the assault on their systems in Branch. The lack of effective and active leadership will most probably lead to WN disbanding or anyway reorganizing under a new form and leadership. In fact the reason why GSF forces took Branch practically without any opposition is due exactly to this reason: lack of leadership from WN side. Politically and military speaking, WN practically ceased its existence for now. A regroup seems to be out of question for them since we see already 4 of their major corporations leaving or in the process of leaving the alliance. However, there is still the possibility for some of the WN corporations to form a new alliance while tactically withdrawing to NPC areas for now. Even if apparently WN is dead, we see that some fights continue in Branch even if with little strategic importance.

RAIDEN is another major player in the Northern War at the moment. In fact they are among the very few alliances that openly opposed GSF in their conquest of Branch. It is obvious that they were unable to flip the balance in any way even though we saw some great battles there. RAIDEN alone can not stand against GSF and allies especially because at the moment they are seriously outnumbered. TEST also conducted an attack on RAIDEN systems in Vale of the Silent forcing them to fight on two different fronts. So far TEST had little to no success in their campaign in the Vale of the Silent even though they managed to capture some systems without any strategical importance. Any confrontations between RAIDEN and TEST confirmed the clear military superiority of RAIDEN.

It is impossible not to observe here that RAIDEN acted in a way that was quite rarely seen in Eve. They stayed with their allies WN to the end even against impossible odds. Such honorable attitude is really rare. Their actions will most probably cost them their space as most probably GSF will not stop after taking Branch. RZR wants their former space back in Tenal and they are good GSF friends. Therefore I expect that soon after Branch campaign will be over, a new campaign to take Tenal will start. GSF are now at their peak in terms of power and therefore it would be a strategic error for them to stop before securing the last hostile territory directly connected to Branch. RAIDEN has been several times associated with BoB and with IT. There is a significant difference though between what RAIDEN is today and what BoB and IT were in the past.

Today, RAIDEN is one of the most powerful alliances with one of the most significantly active supercapital forces. Add to that a very effective and strong leadership with a high number of experienced and seasoned war veterans and you get a quite dangerous war machine. Their alliance is rich enough to sustain their fleets for months even in the absence of sovereignty. Therefore we may look here to a second PL in terms of warfare effectiveness. When GSF will attack Tenal, most probably RAIDEN will choose wisely to make a strategical withdraw to Venal (as they already started to do) if they won’t have strong allies to stand by their side.NC DOT the owners of Tribute are for the moment outside of the conflict. They chose to stay neutral while keeping blue status with many alliances. NC DOT was, alongside WN and RAIDEN one of the major actors that conquered the north almost eight months ago. While their relationship with GSF could be defined as neutral, most of the
current GSF allies have a strong dent against NC DOT because of their role in the falling of the former Northern Coalition. Therefore their lack of involvement in the current conflict was a major strategical error. Given their previous history, NC DOT will be the last target for GSF and allies after Branch and Tenal will be secured. Most probably GSF offered to NC DOT the same thing that they offered to RAIDEN: stay out of the conflict with WN and you will be allowed to keep your territory. While RAIDEN correctly assessed the situation and understood that no matter what Mittani is promising, GSF will not stop after taking Branch since there are too many old debts to be paid, NC DOT felt for the trap and accepted to remain neutral. This will basically cost them Tribute in the next 2 months.

Why am I saying this? Because history in Eve proved that unless you have strong allies, no alliance can hold significant sovereignty, especially in the very rich Northern areas. And after WN will be gone, after RAIDEN will be also out of the Tenal, NC DOT is basically left alone against GSF and allies. WN (as weak as it was) combined with RAIDEN and NC DOT would have been a serious opponent against GSF. Very soon, NC DOT will remain the last alliance with sov in the North, that was part of the old DRF coalition. And no matter what their leaders believe, neither GSF nor their allies will forgive them for this, especially since they will need to have some reds around. The only rich hunting grounds for GSF and allies will remain those in Tribute. The fact that NC DOT today is blue with both TEST and RAIDEN shows a serious lack of understanding in the political intricacies of the game. They sacrificed their future for an apparent safety into the present. In all major conflicts, if you want to stay relevant, you have to choose a side. By staying neutral, they passively helped achieve GSF objectives. Considering that GSF has a proven record to backstab even its allies (see Northern Coalition War) it is only a matter of time until NC DOT will become the new target of choice. At least RAIDEN acted with honor and respected their old friends even though they knew the chances to win were really slim.

In conclusion:

- GSF and Co. will most probably become the new 0.0 leading alliance in 2012. Props to Mittani for having achieved this as it definitely was not an easy feat. No matter what haters will say, GSF became a much better military force over time. They are able to bring impressive numbers in their fleets and they have some very good FCs.

- WN future is uncertain. From such internal turmoil, a star may rise or nothing at all. They had their moment and it is very difficult to foresee what their corporate members will really do.

- RAIDEN has a good chance to remain a star if they will wisely choose their fights. With or without sov, their player base is strong and experienced, so they can easily get over this difficult period. They proved to honor their friends and allies even when clearly they didn’t stand a chance to win. Props for that to their leadership team and to The Supremacy.

- NC DOT seems to be the only looser so far. While they have a solid military force, the inability of their leaders to pick a side will ultimately become their biggest problem. In Eve, neutrality never proved to be a winning card, no matter what.

- The Spartan

Did we mess up? »

If you would like to send intel or contribute, feel free to use the form below:

Submit Intel Here »